Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a chance: how likely a shot is to be scored, judged against many similar shots taken before it.
What xG measures
Every shot is given a value between 0 and 1: the share of similar shots that were scored. A tap-in from two yards might be worth 0.8; a speculative effort from 35 yards, 0.02. A penalty is usually rated at around three in four. Add up a player's or a team's shots and you get their xG: how many goals the chances were worth, before finishing is taken into account.
The model behind the number looks at things that are known before the ball is struck, such as distance and angle to goal, which body part was used, how the chance was created and the type of play (open play, a set piece or a penalty).
How to read it
- xG for a player tells you how good their chances were and how often they got them. A forward who keeps arriving at the end of good chances will have a high xG even in a spell without goals.
- Goals against xG. Scoring more than your xG over a season usually means good finishing, or a run of luck; scoring fewer, the opposite. Over a handful of matches the gap is mostly noise.
- xG for a team (and xG against, or xGA) shows how many good chances a side creates and allows. It is often a steadier guide to performance than the score alone.
What it can't tell you
- It only counts shots. A dangerous cross that nobody reached, or a chance that was never taken, adds nothing.
- It judges the chance, not the strike. Where the shot actually went is measured separately by xGOT.
- Different providers build different models, so xG figures from different websites rarely match exactly.
xG on PLStats
PLStats does not calculate xG itself. The figures come from our data source, Flashscore, and its provider's model, and are shown as published. Player xG covers 2024-25 onwards; team xG and xGA cover 2025-26 onwards.
Figures on PLStats come from Flashscore and are shown as supplied. About our data